more variance testing

game.nim

@@ -86,9 +86,9 @@ proc display*(b: Board, start, stop: int) =
     let sq = b.squares[i]
     let lead = $i & ": "
     if sq.tile.isSome:
-      echo lead, sq.tile.get
+      stdout.writeLine($lead & $sq.tile.get)
     else:
-      echo lead, sq.camels
+      stdout.writeLine($lead & $sq.camels)
   echo ""
 
 

main.nim

@@ -1,102 +1,5 @@
 import math, options, sequtils, random, sets
-import combinators, game, fixedseq, ui
-
-
-type
-  ScoreSet* = array[Color, int]
-
-  ScoreSpread = object
-    lo: array[Color, float]
-    hi: array[Color, float]
-
-  LegResults* = tuple[scores: ScoreSet, endStates: HashSet[Board]]
-
-
-proc update*(scores: var ScoreSet, toAdd: ScoreSet) =
-  for i, s in toAdd:
-    scores[i] += s
-
-
-proc display*(scores: ScoreSet) =
-  let total = scores.sum
-  for color, score in scores:
-    echo color, ": ", round(100 * scores[color] / total, 2), '%'
-
-
-proc projectLeg*(b: Board): LegResults =
-  var scores: ScoreSet
-  var endStates: HashSet[Board]
-
-  var diceRemaining: ColorStack
-  diceRemaining.initFixedSeq
-  for i, c in b.diceRolled:
-    if not c: diceRemaining.add(i)
-
-  for future in possibleFutures(diceRemaining):
-    var prediction = b # make a copy
-    for dieRoll in future:
-      prediction.advance(dieRoll)
-    inc scores[prediction.leader.get]
-    # deduplicate results
-    endStates.incl(prediction)
-
-  result = (scores, endStates)
-
-
-proc projectOutcomes(b: Board, maxDepth = 1): ScoreSet =
-  var outcomeStack = @[ [b].toHashSet ]
-  for depth in 1..maxDepth:
-    echo "simulating ", outcomeStack[^1].len, " possible legs."
-    var endStates: HashSet[Board]
-
-    for o in outcomeStack[^1]:
-      var o = o # make it mutable
-      if outcomeStack.len > 1:
-        o.resetDice # o was describina an end-of-leg state, so dice were exhausted
-
-      let projection = o.projectLeg
-      result.update(projection[0])
-      endStates.incl(projection[1])
-      stdout.write("simulated: " & $result.sum & "\r")
-
-    outcomeStack.add(endStates)
-  echo "\nDistinct end states: ", outcomeStack.mapIt(it.len).sum
-
-
-proc randomGame(b: Board, r: var Rand): Color =
-  var projection = b
-  while true:
-    for roll in randomFuture(projection.diceRemaining, r):
-      projection.advance(roll)
-      if projection.gameOver:
-        return projection.leader.get
-    projection.resetDice
-
-
-proc randomGames(b: Board, count: SomeInteger): ScoreSet =
-  randomize()
-  var r = initRand(rand(int64))
-  for i in 1 .. count:
-    let winner = b.randomGame(r)
-    inc result[winner]
-  #   if i mod 100_000 == 0 or i == count - 1:
-  #     stdout.write("simulating " & count & "random games: " & $i & "\r")
-  # echo ""
-
-
-proc randomSpread(b: Board, nTests: SomeInteger, nSamples: SomeInteger): ScoreSpread =
-  for s in result.lo.mitems:
-    s = 1
-
-  for i in 0 ..< nTests:
-    let scores = b.randomGames(nSamples)
-    let total = scores.sum
-    for color, score in scores:
-      let pct = score / total
-      if pct < result.lo[color]:
-        result.lo[color] = pct
-      if pct > result.hi[color]:
-        result.hi[color] = pct
+import combinators, game, fixedseq, simulation, ui
 
 
 when isMainModule:
@@ -106,5 +9,10 @@ when isMainModule:
   b.setState(config.state, [])
   b.diceRolled = config.diceRolled
   b.display(1, 5)
-  let scores = b.projectLeg()[0]
-  scores.display
+  let legScores = b.getLegScores
+  echo "Current leg probabilities:"
+  legScores.display
+  
+  let gameScores = b.randomGames(1_000_000)
+  echo "\nFull game probabilities (1M simulations):"
+  gameScores.display

simulation.nim

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+import cpuinfo, math, options, random, tables
+import combinators, game, fixedseq
+
+
+type
+  ScoreSet* = array[Color, int]
+
+  ScoreSpread = object
+    lo*: array[Color, float]
+    hi*: array[Color, float]
+
+  LegResults* = tuple[scores: ScoreSet, endStates: CountTable[Board]]
+
+
+proc update*(scores: var ScoreSet, toAdd: ScoreSet) =
+  for i, s in toAdd:
+    scores[i] += s
+
+
+proc display*(scores: ScoreSet) =
+  let total = scores.sum
+  for color, score in scores:
+    let line = $color & ": " & $round(100 * scores[color] / total, 2) & '%'
+    stdout.writeLine(line)
+    stdout.flushFile()
+    # echo color, ": ", round(100 * scores[color] / total, 2), '%'
+
+
+# ======================
+# Single-leg simulations
+# ======================
+
+iterator legEndStates(b: Board): Board =
+  var diceRemaining: ColorStack
+  diceRemaining.initFixedSeq
+  for i, c in b.diceRolled:
+    if not c: diceRemaining.add(i)
+
+  for future in possibleFutures(diceRemaining):
+    var prediction = b # make a copy so we can mutate
+    for dieRoll in future:
+      prediction.advance(dieRoll)
+    yield prediction
+
+
+proc getLegScores*(b: Board): ScoreSet =
+  for prediction in b.legEndStates:
+    inc result[prediction.leader.get]
+
+
+# =====================
+# Full-game simulations
+# =====================
+
+proc randomGame*(b: Board, r: var Rand): Color =
+  var projection = b
+  while true:
+    for roll in randomFuture(projection.diceRemaining, r):
+      projection.advance(roll)
+      if projection.gameOver:
+        return projection.leader.get
+    projection.resetDice()
+
+
+proc randomGamesWorker(b: Board, count: Natural, r: var Rand): ScoreSet =
+  for i in 1 .. count:
+    let winner = b.randomGame(r)
+    inc result[winner]
+
+
+# =======================
+# Multithreading nonsense
+# =======================
+
+type WorkerArgs = object
+  board: Board
+  count: Natural
+  seed: int64
+
+
+# have to do this at the module level so it can be shared
+var gamesChannel: Channel[ScoreSet]
+gamesChannel.open()
+
+
+proc randomGamesThread(args: WorkerArgs) =
+  var r = initRand(args.seed)
+  let scores = randomGamesWorker(args.board, args.count, r)
+  gamesChannel.send(scores)
+
+
+proc randomGames*(b: Board, count: Natural, parallel = true, numThreads = 0): ScoreSet =
+  randomize()
+
+  if not parallel:
+    var r = initRand(rand(int64))
+    return randomGamesWorker(b, count, r)
+
+  let numThreads =
+    if numThreads == 0:
+      countProcessors()
+    else:
+      numThreads
+
+  var workers = newSeq[Thread[WorkerArgs]](numThreads)
+  for i, w in workers.mpairs:
+    var numGames = int(floor(count / numThreads))
+    if i <= (count mod numThreads):
+      numGames += 1
+    let args = WorkerArgs(board: b, count: numGames, seed: rand(int64))
+
+    createThread(w, randomGamesThread, args)
+
+  for i in 1 .. numThreads:
+    let scores = gamesChannel.recv()
+    result.update(scores)
+
+
+proc randomSpread*(b: Board; nTests, nSamples: Natural): ScoreSpread =
+  for s in result.lo.mitems:
+    s = 1
+
+  for i in 0 ..< nTests:
+    let scores = b.randomGames(nSamples)
+    let total = scores.sum
+    for color, score in scores:
+      let pct = score / total
+      if pct < result.lo[color]:
+        result.lo[color] = pct
+      if pct > result.hi[color]:
+        result.hi[color] = pct

test.nim

@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
+import math, random, strformat, times
+import fixedseq, game, simulation
+
+
+proc randomDice(r: var Rand): seq[tuple[c: Color, p: int]] = 
+  for c in Color:
+    let v = r.rand(1..3)
+    result.add((c, v))
+  result.shuffle
+
+
+proc testGames(n: SomeInteger = 100): auto =
+  var r = initRand(rand(int64))
+  let dice = randomDice(r)
+  var b: Board
+  b.init
+  b.setState(dice, [])
+  b.display(1, 5)
+
+  let startTime = cpuTime()
+  let scores = b.randomGames(n)
+  result = cpuTime() - startTime
+  scores.display()
+
+
+proc testLegs(n: Natural = 100): auto =
+  var boards: seq[Board]
+  var r = initRand(rand(int64))
+  for i in 1 .. n:
+    var b: Board
+    b.init
+    let dice = randomDice(r)
+    b.setState(dice, [])
+    boards.add(b)
+    stdout.write("Constructed: " & $i & "\r")
+  echo ""
+  
+  echo "Running..."
+  let start = cpuTime()
+  for b in boards:
+    discard b.getLegScores
+  result = cpuTime() - start
+
+
+proc testSpread(nTests, nSamples: Natural) =
+  var b: Board
+  b.init
+  var r = initRand(rand(int64))
+  let dice = randomDice(r)
+  b.setState(dice, [])
+  b.display(1, 5)
+  let spread = randomSpread(b, nTests, nSamples)
+
+  stdout.writeLine("Variance:")
+  for c in Color:
+    let variance = 100 * (spread.hi[c] - spread.lo[c])
+    stdout.writeLine(fmt"{c}: {round(variance, 2):.2f}%")
+  
+  let diff = 100 * (max(spread.hi) - min(spread.lo))
+  stdout.writeLine(fmt"Win percentage differential: {round(diff, 2):.2f}%")
+
+  stdout.flushFile()
+
+
+when isMainModule:
+  randomize()
+  # let start_states = 2_000
+  # let executionTime = testLegs(start_states)
+  # echo "Execution time: ", executionTime
+  # echo "Leg simulations per second: ", float(start_states * 29_160) / executionTime
+
+  # for i in 1 .. 1:
+  #   let num_games = 100_000_005
+  #   let executionTime = testGames(num_games)
+  #   echo "Execution time: ", executionTime
+  #   echo "Full-game simulations per second: ", float(num_games) / executionTime
+  #   echo ""
+
+  testSpread(100, 1_000_000)