8 Commits

8 changed files with 366 additions and 128 deletions

22
README.md Normal file
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# `cup` - CamelUp probability calculator
This tool calculates probable outcomes for the board game CamelUp.
It can calculate all possible outcomes for a single game leg in about 5ms, so effectively instantaneously.
Full-game calculations take a little bit longer and are not exact (since it isn't practical to simulate all possible full game states.)
However it can easily simulate a million random games in about 80ms in the worst case, which should provide estimates accurate to within about 0.2%.
(Numbers from running on a Ryzen 3700X.)
```
Usage:
cup [-i] SPACE:STACK [...SPACE:STACK] [DICE]
SPACE refers to a numbered board space (1-16).
STACK refers to a stack of camel colors from bottom to top, e.g.
YBR (Yellow, Blue, Red, with Red on top).
DICE refers to the set of dice that have already been rolled,
e.g. GPR (Green, Purple, Red)
Options:
-i Interactive mode (currently unimplemented)
-h Show this message and exit
```

5
config.nims Normal file
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--threads: on
--d: release
--opt: speed
--passC: -flto
--passL: -flto

17
cup.nim Normal file
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import game, simulation, ui
when isMainModule:
let config = parseArgs()
var b: Board
b.init
b.setState(config.state, [])
b.diceRolled = config.diceRolled
echo b.showSpaces(1, 16)
let legScores = b.getLegScores
echo "\nCurrent leg probabilities:"
echo legScores.showPercents()
let gameScores = b.randomGames(1_000_000)
echo "\nFull game probabilities (1M simulations):"
echo gameScores.showPercents()

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@ -18,15 +18,21 @@ proc getAllColors: ColorStack =
for c in Color.low .. Color.high:
result[i] = c
const allColors* = getAllColors()
const colorNames: array[Color, string] =
["Red", "Green", "Blue", "Yellow", "Purple"]
const
allColors* = getAllColors()
colorNames: array[Color, string] =
["Red", "Green", "Blue", "Yellow", "Purple"]
colorAbbrevs: array[Color, char] = ['R', 'G', 'B', 'Y', 'P']
proc `$`*(c: Color): string =
result = colorNames[c]
proc abbrev*(c: Color): char =
result = colorAbbrevs[c]
proc `$`*(s: ColorStack): string =
result.add("St@[")
for i, color in s:
@ -44,12 +50,16 @@ type
tForward = 1
Square* = object
camels: ColorStack
tile: Option[Tile]
camels*: ColorStack
tile*: Option[Tile]
CamelPos* = object
square*: range[1..16]
stackIdx*: int8
Board* = object
squares*: array[1..16, Square]
camels*: array[Color, range[1..16]]
camels*: array[Color, CamelPos]
diceRolled*: array[Color, bool]
leader*: Option[Color]
gameOver*: bool
@ -86,9 +96,9 @@ proc display*(b: Board, start, stop: int) =
let sq = b.squares[i]
let lead = $i & ": "
if sq.tile.isSome:
echo lead, sq.tile.get
stdout.writeLine($lead & $sq.tile.get)
else:
echo lead, sq.camels
stdout.writeLine($lead & $sq.camels)
echo ""
@ -97,13 +107,17 @@ proc setState*(b: var Board;
tiles: openArray[tuple[t: Tile, p: int]]) =
for (color, dest) in camels: # note that `camels` is ordered, as this determines stacking
b[dest].camels.add(color)
b.camels[color] = dest
let height = b[dest].camels.high
b.camels[color] = CamelPos(square: dest, stackIdx: height)
for (tile, dest) in tiles:
b[dest].tile = some(tile)
let leadCamel = b[max(b.camels)].camels[^1] # top camel in the last currently-occupied space
b.leader = some(leadCamel)
for sq in b.squares:
if sq.camels.len > 0:
let squareLeader = sq.camels[^1]
if b.leader.isNone or b.leader.get != squareLeader:
b.leader = some(squareLeader)
proc diceRemaining*(b: Board): ColorStack =
@ -120,7 +134,7 @@ proc resetDice*(b: var Board) =
proc advance*(b: var Board, die: Die) =
let
(color, roll) = die
startPos = b.camels[color]
startPos = b.camels[color].square
var endPos = startPos + roll
if endPos > 16: # camel has passed the finish line
@ -138,18 +152,18 @@ proc advance*(b: var Board, die: Die) =
if prepend:
b[startPos].camels.moveSubstackPre(b[endPos].camels, stackStart)
let stackLen = b[startPos].camels.len - stackStart
for i in 0 ..< stackLen:
for i in 0'i8 ..< stackLen:
# we know how many camels we added to the bottom, so set the position for each of those
b.camels[b[endPos].camels[i]] = endPos
b.camels[b[endPos].camels[i]] = CamelPos(square: endPos, stackIdx: i) # replace with cast later?
else:
let dstPrevHigh = b[endPos].camels.high
b[startPos].camels.moveSubstack(b[endPos].camels, stackStart)
# the camels that have moved start immediately after the previous high camel
for i in (dstPrevHigh + 1) .. b[endPos].camels.high:
b.camels[b[endPos].camels[i]] = endPos
b.camels[b[endPos].camels[i]] = CamelPos(square: endPos, stackIdx: i)
# if we are stacking on or moving past the previous leader
if endPos >= b.camels[b.leader.get]:
if endPos >= b.camels[b.leader.get].square:
b.leader = some(b[endPos].camels[^1])
b.diceRolled[color] = true

110
main.nim
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@ -1,110 +0,0 @@
import math, options, sequtils, random, sets
import combinators, game, fixedseq, ui
type
ScoreSet* = array[Color, int]
ScoreSpread = object
lo: array[Color, float]
hi: array[Color, float]
LegResults* = tuple[scores: ScoreSet, endStates: HashSet[Board]]
proc update*(scores: var ScoreSet, toAdd: ScoreSet) =
for i, s in toAdd:
scores[i] += s
proc display*(scores: ScoreSet) =
let total = scores.sum
for color, score in scores:
echo color, ": ", round(100 * scores[color] / total, 2), '%'
proc projectLeg*(b: Board): LegResults =
var scores: ScoreSet
var endStates: HashSet[Board]
var diceRemaining: ColorStack
diceRemaining.initFixedSeq
for i, c in b.diceRolled:
if not c: diceRemaining.add(i)
for future in possibleFutures(diceRemaining):
var prediction = b # make a copy
for dieRoll in future:
prediction.advance(dieRoll)
inc scores[prediction.leader.get]
# deduplicate results
endStates.incl(prediction)
result = (scores, endStates)
proc projectOutcomes(b: Board, maxDepth = 1): ScoreSet =
var outcomeStack = @[ [b].toHashSet ]
for depth in 1..maxDepth:
echo "simulating ", outcomeStack[^1].len, " possible legs."
var endStates: HashSet[Board]
for o in outcomeStack[^1]:
var o = o # make it mutable
if outcomeStack.len > 1:
o.resetDice # o was describina an end-of-leg state, so dice were exhausted
let projection = o.projectLeg
result.update(projection[0])
endStates.incl(projection[1])
stdout.write("simulated: " & $result.sum & "\r")
outcomeStack.add(endStates)
echo "\nDistinct end states: ", outcomeStack.mapIt(it.len).sum
proc randomGame(b: Board, r: var Rand): Color =
var projection = b
while true:
for roll in randomFuture(projection.diceRemaining, r):
projection.advance(roll)
if projection.gameOver:
return projection.leader.get
projection.resetDice
proc randomGames(b: Board, count: SomeInteger): ScoreSet =
randomize()
var r = initRand(rand(int64))
for i in 1 .. count:
let winner = b.randomGame(r)
inc result[winner]
# if i mod 100_000 == 0 or i == count - 1:
# stdout.write("simulating " & count & "random games: " & $i & "\r")
# echo ""
proc randomSpread(b: Board, nTests: SomeInteger, nSamples: SomeInteger): ScoreSpread =
for s in result.lo.mitems:
s = 1
for i in 0 ..< nTests:
let scores = b.randomGames(nSamples)
let total = scores.sum
for color, score in scores:
let pct = score / total
if pct < result.lo[color]:
result.lo[color] = pct
if pct > result.hi[color]:
result.hi[color] = pct
when isMainModule:
let config = parseArgs()
var b: Board
b.init
b.setState(config.state, [])
b.diceRolled = config.diceRolled
b.display(1, 5)
let scores = b.projectLeg()[0]
scores.display

138
simulation.nim Normal file
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import cpuinfo, math, options, random, tables
import combinators, game, fixedseq
type
ScoreSet* = array[Color, int]
WinPercents* = array[Color, float]
ScoreSpread = object
lo*: array[Color, float]
hi*: array[Color, float]
LegResults* = tuple[scores: ScoreSet, endStates: CountTable[Board]]
proc update*(scores: var ScoreSet, toAdd: ScoreSet) =
for i, s in toAdd:
scores[i] += s
proc display*(scores: ScoreSet) =
let total = scores.sum
for color, score in scores:
let line = $color & ": " & $round(100 * scores[color] / total, 2) & '%'
stdout.writeLine(line)
stdout.flushFile()
# echo color, ": ", round(100 * scores[color] / total, 2), '%'
proc percents*(scores: ScoreSet): WinPercents =
let total = scores.sum
for c, score in scores:
result[c] = score / total
# ======================
# Single-leg simulations
# ======================
iterator legEndStates(b: Board): Board =
var diceRemaining: ColorStack
diceRemaining.initFixedSeq
for i, c in b.diceRolled:
if not c: diceRemaining.add(i)
for future in possibleFutures(diceRemaining):
var prediction = b # make a copy so we can mutate
for dieRoll in future:
prediction.advance(dieRoll)
yield prediction
proc getLegScores*(b: Board): ScoreSet =
for prediction in b.legEndStates:
inc result[prediction.leader.get]
# =====================
# Full-game simulations
# =====================
proc randomGame*(b: Board, r: var Rand): Color =
var projection = b
while true:
for roll in randomFuture(projection.diceRemaining, r):
projection.advance(roll)
if projection.gameOver:
return projection.leader.get
projection.resetDice()
proc randomGamesWorker(b: Board, count: Natural, r: var Rand): ScoreSet =
for i in 1 .. count:
let winner = b.randomGame(r)
inc result[winner]
# =======================
# Multithreading nonsense
# =======================
type WorkerArgs = object
board: Board
count: Natural
seed: int64
# have to do this at the module level so it can be shared
var gamesChannel: Channel[ScoreSet]
gamesChannel.open()
proc randomGamesThread(args: WorkerArgs) =
var r = initRand(args.seed)
let scores = randomGamesWorker(args.board, args.count, r)
gamesChannel.send(scores)
proc randomGames*(b: Board, count: Natural, parallel = true, numThreads = 0): ScoreSet =
randomize()
if not parallel:
var r = initRand(rand(int64))
return randomGamesWorker(b, count, r)
let numThreads =
if numThreads == 0:
countProcessors()
else:
numThreads
var workers = newSeq[Thread[WorkerArgs]](numThreads)
for i, w in workers.mpairs:
var numGames = int(floor(count / numThreads))
if i < (count mod numThreads):
numGames += 1
let args = WorkerArgs(board: b, count: numGames, seed: rand(int64))
createThread(w, randomGamesThread, args)
for i in 1 .. numThreads:
let scores = gamesChannel.recv()
result.update(scores)
proc randomSpread*(b: Board; nTests, nSamples: Natural): ScoreSpread =
for s in result.lo.mitems:
s = 1
for i in 0 ..< nTests:
let scores = b.randomGames(nSamples)
let total = scores.sum
for color, score in scores:
let pct = score / total
if pct < result.lo[color]:
result.lo[color] = pct
if pct > result.hi[color]:
result.hi[color] = pct

97
test.nim Normal file
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import math, random, strformat, times, std/monotimes
import fixedseq, game, simulation, ui
type
TestResults = object
ops: int
time: Duration
proc summarize(tr: TestResults) =
let secs = tr.time.inMilliseconds.float / 1000
stdout.write("Test completed:\n")
stdout.write(" " & $tr.ops, " operations in " & $round(secs, 2) & " seconds\n")
stdout.write(" " & $round(tr.ops.float / secs, 2) & " operations per second")
stdout.flushFile()
template executionTime(body: untyped): Duration =
let start = getMonoTime()
body
getMonoTime() - start
proc getRand(): Rand =
randomize()
result = initRand(rand(int64))
proc randomDice(r: var Rand): seq[tuple[c: Color, p: int]] =
for c in Color:
let v = r.rand(1..3)
result.add((c, v))
result.shuffle
proc newRandomGame(r: var Rand): Board =
var dice: array[5, tuple[c: Color, p: int]]
for i in 0 .. 4:
dice[i] = (Color(i), r.rand(1..3))
result.init
result.setState(dice, [])
proc games(nTests, nSamples: SomeInteger, parallel = true): TestResults =
var r = getRand()
var scores: ScoreSet
for i in 1 .. nTests:
let b = newRandomGame(r)
let dur = executionTime:
let s = b.randomGames(nSamples, parallel = parallel)
result.ops += s.sum()
result.time += dur
proc testLegs(n: Natural = 100): auto =
var boards: seq[Board]
var r = initRand(rand(int64))
for i in 1 .. n:
var b: Board
b.init
let dice = randomDice(r)
b.setState(dice, [])
boards.add(b)
stdout.write("Constructed: " & $i & "\r")
echo ""
echo "Running..."
let start = cpuTime()
for b in boards:
discard b.getLegScores
result = cpuTime() - start
proc testSpread(nTests, nSamples: Natural) =
var b: Board
b.init
var r = initRand(rand(int64))
let dice = randomDice(r)
b.setState(dice, [])
b.display(1, 5)
let spread = randomSpread(b, nTests, nSamples)
stdout.writeLine("Variance:")
for c in Color:
let variance = 100 * (spread.hi[c] - spread.lo[c])
stdout.writeLine(fmt"{c}: {round(variance, 2):.2f}%")
let diff = 100 * (max(spread.hi) - min(spread.lo))
stdout.writeLine(fmt"Win percentage differential: {round(diff, 2):.2f}%")
stdout.flushFile()
when isMainModule:
games(10, 10_000_000).summarize()

59
ui.nim
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@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
import os, strutils
import game
import os, math, strutils, strformat
import fixedseq, game, simulation
const help =
@ -19,6 +19,11 @@ Options:
-h Show this message and exit
"""
# =============================
# User input parsing/validation
# =============================
type
CmdConfig* = object
state*: seq[tuple[c: Color, p: int]]
@ -63,3 +68,53 @@ proc parseArgs*(): CmdConfig =
for c in p:
let color = parseColor(c)
result.diceRolled[color] = true
# ==========================
# Game state representations
# ==========================
proc showSpaces*(b: Board; start, stop: Natural): string =
let numSpaces = stop - start + 1
let width = 4 * numSpaces - 1
var lines: array[7, string]
# start by building up an empty board
for i in 0 .. 6: # gotta initialize the strings
lines[i] = newString(width)
for c in lines[i].mitems:
c = ' '
# fill in the dividers
lines[5] = repeat("=== ", numSpaces - 1)
lines[5].add("===")
# now populate the board
for sp in 0 ..< numSpaces:
# fill in the square numbers
let squareNum = sp + start
let cellMid = 4 * sp + 1
for i, chr in $squareNum:
lines[6][cellMid + i] = chr
# fill in the camel stacks
for i, color in b.squares[squareNum].camels:
let lineNum = 4 - i # lines go to 6, but bottom 2 are reserved
let repr = '|' & color.abbrev & '|'
for j, chr in repr:
lines[lineNum][cellMid - 1 + j] = chr
result = lines.join("\n")
proc showPercents*(scores: ScoreSet): string =
var lines: array[5, string]
for color, pct in scores.percents:
let label = align($color, 7) # e.g. " Green"
var bar = repeat(" ", 20)
let percentage = round(pct * 100, 2)
# populate the progress bar
let barFill = int(round(pct * 100 / 20))
for i in 0 ..< barFill:
bar[i] = '='
lines[int(color)] = fmt"{label}: [{bar}] {percentage}%"
result = lines.join("\n")